Back in August 2021, David (our co-founder) submitted his MBA thesis “Scenario Planning for the UK ‘Mobility as a Service’ Market: Opportunities and How to Capture Them.” The research aimed to answer the question: “What scenarios could emerge in the ‘Mobility as a Service’ market from 2022 to 2026?” As we approach the end of 2024, that future is nearly here. Looking back on the journey of the last years, and how we saw the future, offers some valuable insights and lessons.
Why Scenario Planning Matters
Scenario planning, a part of making strategy, is not about predicting a single future but about preparing for multiple plausible ones. By identifying “critical uncertainties” and exploring how they might evolve, we can develop strategies that remain resilient amidst complexity and change.
The Futures Cone Model by Voros (2003) illustrates the breadth of potential futures, catogorised as Possible, Plausible, Probable, and Preferable, offering a structured framework for strategic planning and scenario analysis.
Back in 2021, David focused his research on the UK’s evolving MaaS landscape, drawing insights from interviews with policymakers, industry experts, and tech leaders. He also leveraged his own experience at Fuse Mobility, where the team had pioneered Scotland’s first MaaS pilot, NaviGoGo, and were preparing to deliver their first services funded by Transport Scotland's MaaS Investment Fund.
At that time, the UK MaaS ecosystem was undergoing significant evolution. Whim had launched and subsequently withdrawn from the West Midlands, while the first Future Transport Zone projects were still in their procurement phase. Meanwhile, Fuse Mobility was on the cusp of launching its first MaaS services as part of the Tactran ENABLE project, signalling an exciting step forward for the team and MaaS in Scotland.
The research uncovered two critical uncertainties shaping the future of MaaS at that time:
The extent of MaaS operating profitability
The policy outcomes of MaaS demonstrators
These factors became the foundation for developing out the four plausible scenarios. Each scenario offered a glimpse into how public and private sector dynamics, market forces, and policy objectives could shape MaaS to four plausible views of the future.
You can read further descriptions of these four scenarios at the bottom of the page.
Reflecting on the market at the end of 2024
Our last blog asked whether the state of MaaS was terminal, or if there was a re-calibration underway. Reflecting on the current state of MaaS, elements of these scenarios are beginning to emerge:
Profitability Challenges: in all but the largest cities of the UK, a business model driven by low margins/commissions and unattractive booking fees/mark up has proven unattractive to end users and therefore product market fit has yet to be truly found. Most presentations on MaaS projects skirt around the low number of bookings they receive and overall uptake.
Policy-Driven Value: in Scotland, where Fuse Mobility partnered on many of the MaaS Investment Funded projects, the policy benefits of MaaS in its ability to support public sector objectives have been uncovered. MaaS services have reached out to people who have struggled to use public and shared transport and have been valued highly by users. In Scotland at least, MaaS appears to have inserted itself in the armoury of sustainable transport planning.
These insights suggest a dual narrative: while MaaS has yet to unlock widespread profitability, its policy benefits and user impact provide a strong foundation for continued investment and innovation. Reflecting on the work and what was happening at the time (2021), we remember the excitement and optimism and the fulsome presentations – often based in hope rather than fact. From a Fuse Mobility perspective, we had delivered Scotland’s first MaaS pilot (NaviGoGo) and knew some of the limits but also the potentials of MaaS going forward into the MaaS Investment Funded project with Tactran at that time.
We certainly went through further learning with our pilots in 2022, ‘23 and ‘24, and we are pleased that full transparent evaluation of the projects we were part of resulted: surely this evidence based approach is a ‘critical’ factor in determining the future of MaaS.
What’s Next for MaaS?
The future of MaaS is still unfolding, and the scenarios laid out in David’s thesis offer a lens for interpreting its progress since 2021. From policy alignment to financial sustainability, the key lies in creating systems that balance commercial viability with public benefit.
Now in December 2024, we are on the cusp of Transport Scotland releasing their evaluation of the MaaS Investment Funded projects and MaaS Scotland publishing their roadmap for MaaS. These will support some new reflection and re-focus in 2025.
Maybe MaaS as a term will be a thing of the past, but certainly the thinking, policy impacts and user focus of the pilots in Scotland, as well as some of the technology, will help improve mobility and accessibility for travellers.
Further descriptions of the four scenarios
“Everyone wants a piece” (High profitability and High policy benefit)
In 2026, there is more government regulation in the sector including guidance/enforcement of interoperability between MaaS systems. Mobility operators start to strongly compete based on differentiators of quality of their data/ticketing/booking integrations in these new MaaS ecosystems. We see an established, competitive and disparate MaaS sector controlled by private sector players in the key battlegrounds of big cities: this is where the coverage of MaaS is highest and provides the most compelling value proposition compared to the private car. In areas where significantly commercial MaaS cannot run, people are catered for by public sector subsidised or Public/private partnership MaaS services.
“Not for profit” (Low profitability but High policy benefit)
In 2026, we see an established MaaS sector led by the public sector. B2G MaaS system providers compete in terms of efficiency of service (value for money) and differentiate themselves by offering additional features or mobility operator integrations that are not standardised or covered by data sharing regulations. All B2G operators will have a floor of functionality covering the open data feeds available and interoperability requirements so will differentiative with additional unique features or integrations with mobility operators not covered by open data sharing regulation. Perhaps some purely private MaaS operators would emerge on the back of a successful data sharing regulation being implemented. However, these private sector offers would be focused on the largest markets where financial sustainability has the highest chance to occur: large cities.
“Fizzle out” (Low profitability and Low policy benefit)
Due to a lack of evidence of policy benefit, limited domestic public sector interest and dwindling support for MaaS, initiatives championing the concept decline significantly. As there is little evidence of user uptake and commercial potential, mobility providers and most of the public sector see little value in getting involved in pure MaaS initiatives. In addition, the wider industry grows more sceptical of MaaS ever becoming financially sustainable on its own. For any MaaS implementations that do prove some public benefit, they will always require a degree of subsidy to keep running. Coverage of MaaS, if any, is in disconnected areas across the UK or only available as spill over from a private operator entering the UK (e.g. a connection with Uber means Glasgow would have some coverage). Some of the successful components and learning from the MaaS pilots may be picked apart for re-use, on a very limited budget, to support the green recovery. In this scenario, the term 'MaaS' would not be associated and a new term, removed from 'MaaS' will likely emerge.
“Battle for market coverage” (High profitability but Low policy benefit)
In 2026 we will see MaaS coverage for most large population centres with some areas having multiple, competing private MaaS services to choose from. Shared and public transport usage has surpassed pre-Covid levels. Most privately funded MaaS systems will have proprietary elements embedded in them to protect profitability and some may have exclusivity agreements with certain mobility operators. Coverage and competition will be focused on the large cities. The public sector’s main role is to regulate the industry but some public sector organisations will have a role in public/private partnerships or running break-even services in areas not covered sufficiently by the private market. However, the public sector may also target investments to support the new role of MaaS in sustainable economic recovery.
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